Quick look at the 2025 Lexus Melbourne Cup contenders

His impressive staying performance to win the Caulfield Cup highlighted he’s a horse with potential to become the 13th horse to complete the coveted double by winning the Lexus Melbourne Cup. 

Jamie Melham delivered one of the rides of her career to guide him home in the Caulfield Cup, and it would be fitting if she could become the second female jockey to win the Lexus Melbourne Cup, ten years after Michelle Payne became the first with her victory on Prince Of Penzance.

He’s trained in Victoria by the respected father-and-son team of Tony and Calvin McEvoy. He was also bred in Victoria and sired by St Jean, who stands at Brackley Park Stud, Avenel.

A victory would make him the first horse bred and trained entirely in Victoria to win the Cup since Gala Supreme, ridden by Frank Reys and trained by Ray Hutchins in 1973.

WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s in superb form and even though he’s been given a two kilos penalty he will only carry 53kg.

WHY HE CAN’T: He has never been over a trip longer than 2400m.

There were several eye-catching Lexus Melbourne Cup trials in the Caulfield Cup, but arguably the most impressive came from Chris Waller’s stayer.

His win in The Lexus Bart Cummings (2500m), which secured his Cup berth, showcased the performance of a superior stayer, relishing the fast tempo set by Gilded Water and drawing clear to win by two and three-quarter lengths.

In the Caulfield Cup, he settled well back and produced the fastest final 200 metres of the race, clocking 12.06 seconds. He may have finished even closer, with Racing Victoria stewards noting he was held up from the 400-metre mark until passing the 250, and became awkward near the post when Half Yours shifted in, almost causing him to clip heels.

As a result, he could not be fully ridden out to the line. He finished 13th in last year’s Lexus Melbourne Cup but is clearly going better now. That run was better than it appeared – he was trapped wide throughout and not suited to the slow tempo, yet was beaten only five and a half lengths.

WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s in top form and well-suited for 3200m. Chris Waller has won one Melbourne Cup and is eager to add another.

WHY HE CAN’T: A wet track or a slowly run Melbourne Cup won’t help.

The American-bred horse, based in England, repeated the form that saw him win last year’s Geelong Cup with an equally impressive victory in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) last Friday night.

He was well supported in last year’s Lexus Melbourne Cup, starting at $7, but the race proved a non-event. After being slow away, he settled near the rear, then was forced wide in the straight – not an ideal position – and was further inconvenienced when held up in the run.

WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s a winner over 3300m, so he can comfortably run the distance. He received a one-kilo penalty for winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but will only carry 53kg.

WHY HE CAN’T: Is he good enough? He’s also following a similar path to last year when he failed.

He’s another horse who will fly the Victorian flag when he represents the Wimmera in the Lexus Melbourne Cup. His trainer Paul Preusker’s stables are near Horsham, but his official base is McKenzie Creek, where he uses deep sand training to build the horses' fitness.

Torranzino demonstrated his staying ability when he wore down Gilded Water to win the Geelong Cup (2400m) and secure a golden ticket into the Lexus Melbourne Cup.

He’s a tough galloper and will also benefit from having the in-form, underrated rider Celine Gaudray piloting him in the Lexus Melbourne Cup, her first ride in the race.

Preusker trained Surprise Baby to finish fifth in 2019, where he was only 0.9 lengths behind Vow And Declare.

WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s in form, he’s tough, and he carries a lightweight. He’s had the longest, most searching lead-up into the race.

WHY HE CAN’T: Lacks class and remains untested over the distance.

It may have come as a surprise to some but Chris Waller is likely to always have had the Lexus Melbourne Cup front of mind for Buckaroo as there’s similarities with his 2025 spring campaign and the campaign of Verry Elleegant in 2021 which culminated in a Melbourne Cup win.

Both horses had the fourth run of their campaign in the Cox Plate with Verry Elleegant finishing third and Buckaroo narrowly failing to defeat his illustrious stablemate, Via Sistina. Last year Buckaroo started favourite in the Lexus Melbourne Cup but drew barrier 20, was slowly away and then was trapped wide for most of the race when ridden by Joao Moreira.

He gave away a huge start and ended up very wide so his effort to finish ninth beaten only 3.52 lengths was good under the circumstances.

WHY HE CAN WIN: Is there a better form line than the Cox Plate? He can run the distance out as he showed last year.

WHY HE CAN’T: He will carry 57kg. He has a habit of not getting there in the big races.

There’s no more intriguing runner in the Lexus Melbourne Cup than the first United States-trained galloper, Parchment Party, who earned his spot in the race when the grey gelding outstayed his rivals to win the Grade 3 Belmont Gold Cup (2816m) comfortably, after the race was moved to the dirt following a Saratoga deluge. 

He came from sixth at the 1000 metres to effortlessly account for his rivals by 8.5 lengths. He returned to the Saratoga track in early August and won the Listed Birdstone Stakes over the same distance.

He’s trained by Bill Mott, who has been the USA’s most outstanding trainer four times. Earlier this year, he trained Sovereignty to victory in the Kentucky Derby, his second win in that race. He also trained the legendary Cigar in the mid-1990s.

WHY HE CAN WIN: The big-striding American should relish the wide-open spaces of Flemington and seems to really enjoy the marathon distances, winning his last two starts over 2816 metres.

WHY HE CAN’T: It's a long way to come and almost all of his form is on dirt. It's an amazing training performance to get him here, to win would be something else.

Al Riffa is as well credentialled for an overseas raider as we’ve seen in Australia for many years, having won the Group 2 Curragh Cup (2816m) and the Group 1 Irish St Leger (2816m), both at The Curragh.

Prior to that, he finished second at Royal Ascot to Rebel’s Romance, who has since won Group 1 races in Germany and the USA.

His trainer, Joseph O’Brien, has already secured two Melbourne Cups with horses that won the Curragh Cup—Rekindling in 2017 and Twilight Payment in 2020. Twilight Payment finished third in the Irish St Leger before winning the Melbourne Cup with 55.5kg.

He will need to carry 59kg to win. The last horse to carry a similar weight and succeed in a Melbourne Cup was Think Big in 1975, who carried 58.5 kilograms. He will be ridden by Mark Zahra, who has won the Lexus Melbourne Cup twice this decade, aboard Gold Trip and Without A Fight.

WHY HE CAN WIN: He oozes class. Joseph O’Brien knows what he’s doing, and he wouldn’t be in Melbourne unless he believed the horse could handle the big weight. With Mark Zahra in the saddle, he has every chance.

WHY HE CAN’T: History states that carrying 59kg is a significant challenge.

The Lexus Melbourne Cup remains high on the wish list of Irish training maestro Willie Mullins, who has already prepared runners to finish second, third, and fourth in the great race.

Absurde returns for his third Lexus Melbourne Cup attempt, but this time Mullins has taken a different approach – giving him a lead-up run in Australia rather than tackling the race first-up.

The versatile stayer, who has also enjoyed success over hurdles, produced a solid trial in the Caulfield Cup. It was a commendable run, as he was crowded for much of the race and never found clear galloping room in the straight.

He kept finding the line to finish seventh, just 3.17 lengths from Half Yours. Racing Victoria stewards noted he was hampered near the 200 metres and had to be steadied off heels approaching the winning post.

He finished seventh in the 2023 Lexus Melbourne Cup and improved to fifth last year, beaten only 1.7 lengths after enduring little luck both early and late.

WHY HE CAN WIN: He’ll enjoy the extra distance, and Mullins thinks he will have benefited from the Caulfield Cup run, which could make the difference after two strong Lexus Melbourne Cup performances.

WHY HE CAN’T: There’s a familiar pattern to his three runs in Melbourne over his career. Each has been solid, but there have been excuses. Is he being held up for runs because he’s not used to racing in such tight fields, and could this be a problem he’ll face again?

French-trained stayers experienced a successful period, winning consecutively in 2010 and 2011 when Americain and Dunaden claimed victory.

Similarly, Presage Nocturne competed in the Group 2 Prix Kergolay (3000m) finishing a close third, beaten by less than half a length at Deauville in late August. Protectionist also participated in that race before going on to win the Melbourne Cup in 2014.

Presage Nocturne gained Lexus Melbourne Cup admirers with his fourth place in the Caulfield Cup, having come from 13th at the 400m to finish fourth.

Presage Nocturne is by Wootton Bassett, and his dam is a half-sister to Simenon, who finished fourth in the 2013 Melbourne Cup.

WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s a dyed-in-the-wool stayer who will relish the trip and has the correct European form lines, not to mention his eye-catching Australian debut in the Caulfield Cup.

WHY HE CAN’T: Will they stay with the French jockey Stephanie Pasquer? Will his weight of 55.5kg catch him out in a handicap?

Over the past two years, Vauban has attracted most of the Lexus Melbourne Cup publicity when trained by Irish trainer Willie Mullins. It is now history that he started at $5.50 and finished 14th behind Without A Fight in 2023 when he struggled in the warm conditions.

He returned last year with Mullins, starting at $8 and finishing 11th, only five lengths behind the winner Knight’s Choice, as he was not suited by the slow pace of the race.

Australian Bloodstock then purchased him and entrusted him to trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. He managed to win the Group 3 Sky High Stakes over 2000 metres at Rosehill in March, and subsequently finished third in the Group 1 Tancred Stakes (2400m).

He ran home strongly to finish fifth in the Group 1 Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick before a plain effort last start in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).

WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s improved and acclimatised since joining the Waterhouse/Bott stable late last year.

WHY HE CAN’T: He needs to improve on his last two Lexus Melbourne Cup efforts to feature in this year's race.

River Of Stars was ridden well by Beau Mertens to finish second in the Caulfield Cup (2400m), in an effort that was still highly commendable as she finished strongly along the rails and was not far behind Half Yours, which reads well.

Another impressive aspect was that she stayed strong after the line, indicating she could appreciate more ground. She will carry two kilos less than Half Yours. She was also placed in last year’s Sydney Cup (3200m) and had strong French form last year.

WHY SHE CAN WIN: She’s a well-performed French mare in her second preparation with Chris Waller and appears to have improved. She will also carry only 51.5kg.

WHY SHE CAN’T: She had all the favours in the Caulfield Cup, so her finishing position may have been misleading.

The last horse Simon and Ed Crisford sent to Australia for the Lexus Melbourne Cup was Without A Fight in 2022, who wasn’t suited by the soft track and finished 12th. As planned, he was transferred to Anthony and Sam Freedman, who led him to victory a year later.

The Crisfords are now back with Meydaan, who showed he will relish the 3200 metres of the Lexus Melbourne Cup with a better-than-it-looked ninth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m).

Trapped wide through the middle stages, he lost his position before the turn but kept finding the line once clear, finishing strongly.

Data showed he covered 2420 metres – seven metres more than the winner. Before travelling to Australia, he finished third in the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton Park behind Giavellotto, who later ran fourth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2400m) at Longchamp.

WHY HE CAN WIN: He finished well in the Caulfield Cup, and the Giavellotto formline remains strong.

WHY HE CAN’T: He’s untried over the distance, and his class could be a query.

The Andrew Balding-trained, lightly raced stayer is the most intriguing of the international contenders, as he’s the least exposed among them.

He demonstrated his staying ability with a strong win in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2715m) two starts ago at the challenging Newbury circuit, where he sat behind the pace before Oisin Murphy urged him to take the lead with 400 metres remaining, and he created a gap on his rivals.

He then stepped up in class and was no match for the champion Scandinavia, finishing sixth in a field of seven, beaten four and a half lengths, in the Group 1 English St Leger (2921m) at Doncaster. He will carry only 52kg, making him an appealing lightweight contender.

WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s going to carry a lightweight and will be suited by the distance. Andrew Balding wouldn’t bring him here on a whim.

WHY HE CAN’T: Too inexperienced and untested in the class.

You only need to look back to last year’s Lexus Melbourne Cup and Warp Speed’s runner-up performance to remember what the Japanese are capable of in our great race.

In 2023, Warp Speed finished fourth in the Group 2 Stayers Cup at Nakayama over 3600 metres – eleven months before his Melbourne Cup tilt. Chevalier Rose claimed the 2024 edition of that race.

The eight-year-old son of Deep Impact has yet to recapture his best form in four runs this year at Group 1 and Group 2 level, with his best effort being a seventh placing in the Group 1 Tenno Sho (3200m) at Kyoto in May, beaten by ten lengths.

WHY HE CAN WIN: His best form would see him right in the finish, as it’s good enough to win.

WHY HE CAN’T: He’s a veteran stallion who has lost form.