2026 Lexus Melbourne Cup - Racing And Sports analysis
Trent Crebbin from Racing And Sports goes through every runner in the $10.2 million Lexus Melbourne Cup. The form lines, the golden ticket winners, the internationals; it's all covered.
Racing And Sports Summary:
It feels like Maher vs O’Brien in the Lexus Melbourne Cup this year but George Boughey’s Hopewell Rock isn’t to be discounted. The form through his past two starts has held up well, both in England and Australia. Trustyourinstinct profiles beautifully for a Melbourne Cup and James McDonald was riding the lights out on Derby Day while Point Of Law was enormous at Geelong and will take beating if he can back that up.
1. Sons And Lovers (GB)
Racing And Sports Rating: 117
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Weight: 57.5kg
Barrier: 3
A remarkably consistent stayer who very rarely puts in a poor run, Sons And Lovers has run up to his peak three times in a row in vastly different scenarios. Fifth in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes (2414m) at Royal Ascot is world class form before controlling a slow speed at Longchamp to win narrowly. Good last time in second, finishing well clear of James J Braddock and Goodie Two Shoes at Leopardstown. Weighted to his best but handles all ground and almost never runs poorly.
2. Trustyourinstinct (IRE)
Racing And Sports Rating: 118
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: James McDonald
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 18
A classic Joseph O’Brien project horse who went hurdling as a younger horse before returning to the flat and slowly improving with racing. Split the talented Purview and subsequent Group 1 winner Hotazhell over 2011m before beating Al Riffa in the Group 2 Curragh Cup (2816m). The stable have followed the same path as 2020 Cup winner Twilight Payment through the Group 1 Irish St Leger (2816m) where he ran a sound fourth. Stays well, importantly has a turn of foot, and gets J-Mac aboard – he ticks a lot of boxes.
3. Knight’s Choice
Racing And Sports Rating: 114
Trainer: John Symons And Sheila Laxon
Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 2
The 2024 Melbourne Cup winner returns having shocked the nation as a $91 chance two years ago. He’s had a nice build up, again racing over the Queensland Winter but he struggled when 14th of 16 finishers in the Caulfield Cup last start. Has 5kg more than 2024 but he was very good when an unlucky third to Pinhole in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) two starts back and that was better than anything he’d done in his Cup winning preparation.
4. Middle Earth (GB)
Racing And Sports Rating: 117
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 1
Following a similar preparation to last year which saw him run third to Half Yours, running in the Underwood, Turnbull and Caulfield Cup both years before backing up on Cox Plate day. Picked off a few late in the Cox Plate when beaten seven lengths which was a solid enough trial for another tilt at the Cup. The airborne Ciaron Maher stable have had 12 months to build him up and he looks on track to run right up to his best.
5. Vauban (FR)
Racing And Sports Rating: 118
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse And Adrian Bott
Jockey: Jordan Childs
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 22
Vauban returns for a fourth tilt at the Melbourne Cup and his second under Gai Waterhouse And Adrian Bott, who trained him to his best finishing position (6th) in last year’s edition behind Half Yours. Comes here just second up off a battling ninth in the Geelong Cup behind Point Of Law and best form in Australia has been over shorter trips. It would be a remarkable training effort but he’s in the right hands and has the class.
6. Enfjaar (IRE)
Racing And Sports Rating: 119
Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: Ray Dawson
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 8
Enfjaar came over to Australia as a leading Caulfield Cup chance off a strong all-the-way win in the Group 3 Glorious Stakes (2414m) at Goodwood, his first attempt at that trip as a $13 chance. He was given a perfect run in transit at Caulfield behind the speed but ran well for third after hitting the front in the straight. Brings a solid form profile but the stable had previously queried him at 2400m so the rise to 3200m is of concern.
7. Royal Supremacy (IRE)
Racing And Sports Rating: 117
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ben Allen
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 21
Group 1 winner of The Metropolitan last year who went on to run 15th in the Cup after settling handy to a brutal tempo and fading. He’s raced well through the Queensland Winter winning the Group 2 Q22 (2200m) after leading at a very slow speed with last year’s Cup winner Half Yours in behind. He again had favours winning the Group 3 JRA Cup (2000m) at Caulfield two back but dropped right out in the Caulfield Cup last start as a $13 chance. Did have excuses given the race shape but a strong two miles is a query.
8. Wine Dark Sea (GB)
Racing And Sports Rating: 117
Trainer: Harry Charlton
Jockey: Damian Lane
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 23
Relatively lightly raced part-owned by Australian Bloodstock, Wine Dark Sea was touted as a possible Melbourne Cup contender off a smart all-the-way win in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2715m) at Newbury. Beat Dubai Honour there and was well fancied in the Caulfield Cup off that win but faded into 11th as an $8 chance after being caught up in the mid-race move. No horse this century has won the Melbourne Cup directly off such a poor run in the Caulfield Cup but Warp Speed (13th) did run second in 2024.
9. Asterix (NZ)
Racing And Sports Rating: 116
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 6
Another with the Queensland Winter campaign under his belt including a Group 3 Tattersall’s Cup (2400m) win. Looked on track second up this time in with a closing third to Zahrann in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) before a forgivable run in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) on heavy ground. Never likely in the Caulfield Cup but did have to avoid traffic there while only 3200m run was an even fourth in much weaker NZ company. Needs a huge turnaround.
10. Goodie Two Shoes (IRE)
Racing And Sports Rating: 117
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 19
Former hurdling and steeplechasing mare who rose through the grades rapidly on the flat in Ireland prior to last year’s Melbourne Cup, sent out a $41 chance and boxing on well for second to Half Yours. Form back home this year has been mixed, winning the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes (2816m) against her own sex then finishing last in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes (2414m). She was well behind James J Braddock there she’s got the Flemington experience.
11. Juja Kibo (IRE)
Racing And Sports Rating: 117
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 14
Progressive stayer who has looked good winning his past two, showing a sharp turn of foot in slowly run races. Missed a run in the Caulfield Cup after winning The Metropolitan but booked his spot with a good win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup at Flemington on Cox Plate day, coming from well off the slow speed. Perhaps a slight niggle if this is a brutal test of stamina but in the right hands to counter that and comeback jockey Sam Clipperton gets the best out of him.
12. Hopewell Rock (IRE)
Racing And Sports Rating: 117
Trainer: George Boughey
Jockey: Zac Lloyd
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 15
Lightly raced raider coming through the handicap staying scene in England for a sharp young trainer who prepared Via Sistina before she came to Australia. Two starts ago he stayed on strongly to win at Goodwood over 2816m, beating Small Fry who ran a bold second to Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup. He’s since run a narrow second in the Ebor Handicap at York where the rider dropped the whip and the form around that Ebor has been strong. Gets a gun young hoop on and should run well.
13. Onesmoothoperator (USA)
Racing And Sports Rating: 108
Trainer: Tim Fitzsimmons
Jockey: Declan Bates
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 13
Formerly trained by Brian Ellison in the North of England, Onesmoothoperator won the Geelong Cup in 2024 and the Moonee Valley Gold Cup in 2025 when fresh off the plane, finishing 12th and 16th in the respective Melbourne Cups. He’s since been kept in Australia but hasn’t been able to recapture that form, okay coming from last in the Herbert Power but well beaten into 11th in the Geelong Cup, beaten over nine lengths. Would need a major form reversal.
14. Soul Of Spain (IRE)
Racing And Sports Rating: 115
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 5
Former Joseph O’Brien trained galloper who has been a consistent stayer for the Chris Waller yard. He ran second in the Sydney Cup over 3200m earlier this year and was unlucky not to have won as the winner got a very soft lead. Five runs this time in have all been about building and he was a forgivable eighth in the Caulfield Cup last start when making an early move around the field. Going okay but class may test.
15. Zahrann (IRE)
Racing And Sports Rating: 115
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ben Melham
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 11
Came to Australia with a strong profile as a Group 3 winner that started single figures in a Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes (2011m). He was given a few runs over the Winter to acclimatise and stamped his Caulfield Cup papers with a solid win in the Naturalism Stakes, sent out second favourite in the Caulfield Cup. The run there was solid, picking up late for sixth after an interrupted run, he just needs to run out a strong 3200m which is a little niggle.
16. So You Are
Racing And Sports Rating: 115
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Rachel King
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 7
Home bred gelding who has been a fantastic addition to the Bjorn Baker yard after starting his career in Queensland with Stirling Osmand, winning his maiden in a Toowoomba Class 1 in February last year. He’s risen quickly through the ranks over the early Spring, winning his past four starts including a tough effort in a strongly run Bendigo Cup last time out. He’ll be as fit as anything having barely spelled since March and would be a popular winner.
17. Future History (GB)
Racing And Sports Rating: 115
Trainer: Gregory Hickman
Jockey: Jamie Melham
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 12
Eight-year-old gelding who sneaks into the field and gives last year’s heroine Jamie Melham a chance at back-to-back Melbourne Cups. Formerly trained by Ciaron Maher, he ran 15th in the 2023 edition as an $18 chance and has mixed his form since joining the Hickman yard. Close up efforts in the Herbert Power and Moonee Valley Gold Cup have been fair but there have been better runs in both, this would be a huge turnaround.
18. James J Braddock (GB)
Racing And Sports Rating: 114
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Craig Williams
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 24
Northern Hemisphere three-year-old who ran a gallant third in very heavy conditions in the Group 1 Epsom Derby (2414m) earlier this year before struggling badly in the Group 1 Irish Derby (2414m). He was gelded thereafter with a view to the Melbourne Cup, solid at his reappearance in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes (2414m) when sixth, only 1.5 lengths behind Sons And Lovers who he meets on similar weight terms. Creates interest with his profile and Cup winning jockey Craig Williams has been booked for a long time.
19. Kizlyar (IRE)
Racing And Sports Rating: 110
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Beau Mertens
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 20
Joseph O’Brien sneaks another into the field at the last minute with Kizlyar who also went over hurdles as a younger horse before returning to the flat. He beat stablemate and one-time Cup favourite Defiantly over 4023m at Ascot in June and makes the field at that horse’s expense. His Melbourne debut in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup was poor when heavily supported, beaten for a change of speed he doesn’t have. Needs to improve but should do so in a stronger test of stamina.
20. Point Of Law (GB)
Racing And Sports Rating: 118
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ethan Brown
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 9
Northern Hemisphere three-year-old previously owned by The King, purchased to be trained by Ciaron Maher as a Melbourne Cup horse earlier this year. He ran on well in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase (2816m) at Royal Ascot before atoning with a good victory on speed at Newmarket. He put to bed worries of immaturity in the Geelong Cup, running his rivals into the ground from outside the lead and posting a big rating in the process. Provided he can back that up he looks every bit a typical Melbourne Cup winner.
21. Strictly Business
Racing And Sports Rating: 108
Trainer: Thomas Carberry
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 4
Burst onto the scene for Thomas Carberry, going from a Ballarat maiden win over 1400m to a VRC Oaks win over 2500m in the space of two weeks, destroying her rivals in fast time that day. She showed a glimpse of that form getting out in trip in the Autumn when third in the South Australian Derby but has only beaten three horses home in three runs this Spring. Being optimistic, she hasn’t been in a test of stamina since the Oaks, but she’s got too much ground to make up.
22. Mr Monaco (GB)
Racing And Sports Rating: 115
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Jabez Johnstone
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 16
Another of Ciaron Maher’s team, Mr Monaco went through the grades in the Autumn to start second favourite in the Sydney Cup but dropped out after a tough run. He earnt his way into the Melbourne Cup with a solid victory in The Bart Cummings, ridden positively up on speed and holding the consistent Litzdeel at bay. Since closed off well for third behind Juja Kibo and would be a great story for Jabez Johnstone who is aiming to become the first apprentice since 1948 to win the Melbourne Cup.
23. Zakouma
Racing And Sports Rating: 112
Trainer: Grahame Begg
Jockey: William Pike
Weight: 52kg
Barrier: 10
Local stayer for a very sharp trainer in Grahame Begg who has had six months to target Zakouma at the Cup having won the Andrew Ramsden Stakes over 2800m in May. He’s had four runs in the Spring and looked right on track to peak on Tuesday, hitting the line well over shorter trips. Begg elected to give Zakouma a final tune up race over a mile last week and he should be ready to peak with Cox Plate winning jockey William Pike on board.
24. Shockletz (NZ)
Racing And Sports Rating: 113
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey:
Weight: 51kg
Barrier: 17
Daughter of 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking who has always promised good staying ability, but this preparation has where she’s really emerged. She was dominant winning the Archer Stakes at Flemington in September which gave her the golden ticket in and two runs since when ridden cold have been lovely Cup trials. With no weight on her back and an ideal preparation she looks one of the best local hopes for the Maher stable who are producing a myriad of staying winners.